In 2007, international oil prices soared, reaching new heights. Oil as essential to the current economic and social development based on resources, their value seems to constantly be overestimated. High oil prices and the lingering U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, like the shadow of enveloped in the global economy over the world economy in 2008 will decline? oil supply and demand have changed? whether oil prices did not follow the law? Let us together with experts from multiple angles perspective of the current international oil market.
World Economy and Finance of the oil market
1. high oil prices and the subprime mortgage crisis
the current world economic situation, high economic growth the world co-exist with high-risk, high oil prices and low inflation counterparts, the development of Balanced and unbalanced growth of coexistence .2007 should be said that turbulent year, but also development of the year: the United States subprime mortgage crisis and high oil prices, is shrouded in the shadow of the world economy over the two; emerging market and developing countries strong economic growth, world economic growth was laid a good foundation; regardless of market exchange rates or purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, China will become the biggest boost world economic growth engine. China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, the Institute of World Economy Long Chen Fengying (by Wang Li on behalf of the statement), begins with a concise language, outlines the current overall situation in the world economy.
(1) the world economy showed four characteristics
1) Strong world economic growth. Despite the high price of oil has been going on for years, but economic globalization, particularly in emerging markets and developing countries to actively participate in globalization, development trend of world economy changes: extension of the business cycle, the development of enhanced stability, growth volatility declined, increased economic interaction between . According to IMF (IMF) statistics, in the last 10 years the average annual economic growth of 4.4% of the world, including the last 3 years, 5.2%, higher than 3.2% over the past 10 years, close to a golden post-war period (1950 - 1973) of 4.8%. IMF forecast, according to purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, the world economy in 2007 will grow 5.2%, slowing to 4.8% in 2008, but 2009-2012 will rise to 5.1%.
2 ) The global share of economic growth. and the first round of gold of different, in this economic expansion the world, most countries, especially least developed countries to share economic growth. UNCTAD predicts that 2007 is only worldwide 6 countries per capita GDP growth is negative, which is the index to set the best year of more than 40 years. developing and developed countries per capita income difference between 23 times in 1980 reduced to 18 times in 2007. the last 5 years All developing regions are higher than developed countries, per capita income growth, rarely seen in history.
3) the acceleration of economic polarization. and 90s of last century the U.S. economy Multi engine center of gravity eastward, showing 10 years, major economies in the world economy and the interaction was enhanced, the United States, Germany, Japan, in the interaction with the world economy simultaneously increased; the United States, Europe, Japan and the Russia, India, China) jointly boost world economic growth, world economic growth tends to yuan. the last 10 years, all regions of China and the world, enhanced economic interaction. In particular, the interaction with developing countries increased significantly. Britain, scientists, ), especially after 2004, the world economy has entered a rapid growth trend, the fourth consecutive year in 2007 to maintain the growth rate of around 5%. estimated 2009-2012 world economic growth will still remain at 5.1%.
changes in the structure of world economic power, usually from two analysis, one emerging market and developing countries, and second, the developed countries.
1) the development of developing countries and emerging markets is expected to better. In developed countries, the general economic slowdown, emerging economies provide a strong expansion in the global foundation for the development. IMF estimates ,2005-2008, emerging market and developing countries, average annual economic growth of 7.8% ,2009-2012 decreased slightly to 7.3%, more than 3.8% over the past 10 years, 2.6% higher in developed countries. Developing countries at a low price products, strong consumption and capital in the world economy has shown unprecedented high oil prices and low inflation and high growth coexist. almost all of the current the economic performance of developing regions who are not: several aspects of the support. First, the rate of inflation has dropped significantly. Second, the balance of payments improved significantly. primary products, especially energy prices, the surge in resource exporting countries foreign exchange earnings. emerging markets and developing countries, current account surplus increased substantially. 596 billion U.S. dollars in 2006, was 593.3 billion U.S. dollars in 2007, 2008, is estimated to reach 623.6 billion U.S. dollars. Third, South-South cooperation to be rising. emerging economies and developing countries in globalization and regional cooperation will significantly enhance the resource cooperation , mutual fund flows, market liberalization, and personnel exchanges in full swing, mutual benefit and win-win situation in the horizon.
the biggest bright spot is the Asian developing countries, developing economies, nice view. Asia's world the main driving force of economic growth . at purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, spending in Asia has surpassed the United States (U.S. consumption accounts for 19.7% of global output), faster than the United States more than doubled. the last 5 years to PPP terms, world economic growth in Asia more than 50% contribution rate, the United States only 13%; at market exchange rates, Asia 21%, 19% of the United States. Asia has truly become the world's major driving force of economic development.
2) developed countries to put economic short-term delay. Although the United States subprime mortgage crisis triggered the financial turmoil and credit tightening impact on economic expansion, the United States, Europe, Japan and other developed economies generally cool, short-term downside risk is increased, but the medium-term prospects remain good. developed countries, the potential growth level and growth capacity declined from 12.5% in the past 15 years, now down to 2.3% of .2007 and 2008 growth forecasts to 2.9% from the previous year slowed to 2.5% and 2.2% in 2009, is expected to rebound to 2.6%. which the euro zone economy has entered a period of moderate development; increased economic uncertainty in Japan, moderate economic recovery; the U.S. economy has entered a slow period of adjustment.
(3) subprime mortgage crisis threatening global economic prosperity
sub-prime crisis is currently affecting the world the biggest risk the economy. IMF believes that although the sub-prime crisis has not yet pose a major threat to global macroeconomic, but it is difficult to see the end result of the global financial situation is not optimistic, the world has entered an uncertain and potentially difficult period. According to IMF statistics, mortgages accounted for the total assets of U.S. households 14.1% of the total sub-prime mortgages accounted for 15% of the subprime mortgage delinquency rate is about 25%, the loss of funds estimated at 145 billion U.S. dollars, together with other mortgage losses, totaling 200 billion dollars. But Goldman Sachs estimated that the loss of the subprime mortgage crisis will be up to 4,000 billion U.S. dollars. Chen Fengying that the current subprime mortgage crisis is more dangerous to enter the second phase, the peak period of repayment. IMF estimates that the fourth quarter of 2007 and the most dangerous first quarter of 2008, adjustments will continue until the end of 2008.
crisis in the subprime mortgage crisis, mainly in the following areas.
1) economic and financial technology to enlarge the sub-prime risk. leads to economic and financial benefits derived from increasing. According to IMF statistics, the global output in 2006 was 48.2 trillion, $ 50,800,000,000,000 stock market, financial assets amounted to 190.4 trillion U.S. dollars, derivatives reached $ 48,570,000,000, respectively, equivalent to 105% of the world economy, 395%, and 10 times. economic and financial world of the bigger economic pie, while also increasing the spread of financial risk.
2) subprime mortgage crisis is the United States the process of transfer of financial risk. the United States holds the monopoly of global finance, the dollar depreciation packaging, the actual sub-prime transfer deficit in the United States to reduce debt, get rid of the burden, reduce the risk of means. In essence, this subprime mortgage crisis, the U.S. economy to some extent the world share the According to statistics, every dollar depreciation of 10%, equivalent to 5.3% of the U.S. economy from the world of wealth transfer to the United States. Over the past 5 years, due to depreciation of the dollar, the global contribution of 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars in wealth.
3) times credit crisis has caused a panic in people's minds. the sub-prime mortgage market crisis could set off a chain crisis involving mortgage debt, commercial paper, investment banks, insurance companies, hedge funds, almost all financial institutions. Because of the above agencies will sub-prime export packing to global distribution and extent of risk is difficult to judge, the uncertainty caused by the global financial panic is a key factor. in the subprime mortgage crisis, the global bailout funds have been invested over 500 billion U.S. dollars. a small scale subprime mortgage crisis led to joint US-European days, government-enterprise cooperation, it is unprecedented. crisis is not over, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup officials have resigned. shows that the risk of spread of financial globalization, the extent of non-financial securities market uncertainty of how strong.
2. the international oil prices, U.S. dollar and financial markets
(1) crude oil market, the current oil price bubble in the financial technology
huge hoisting the price is not supply disruptions, and the supply and demand fundamentals has little, mainly due to unpredictable future expectations, with the typical characteristics of the financial of the bubble. Center for China Studies, Tsinghua University, Dr. Guan Qingyou that the background of the current round of oil bull market since 2001, strong world economic growth and global liquidity excess of .2001, the global financial derivatives was a great development. According to IMF statistics, 2001-2005, the global .2002-2005, global bonds, equities and bank assets percentage of GDP, up from 330% to 370% .2001-2005, the global OTC derivatives market capitalization of approximately 4 trillion U.S. dollars from continuing to approximately 10 million billion U.S. dollars. the same period the amount of outstanding contracts on behalf of 110 trillion U.S. dollars from the continued surge to about 300 trillion. ① including oil futures market, including the international financial markets awash with liquidity, and became an important reason for soaring oil prices. primary commodity prices and oil prices have more than the highest levels (in real terms, oil prices in 1864 had reached $ 104, but the price does not make sense for the current oil prices), can be said that this is not 50 years the highest price.
for the current round of soaring international oil prices, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations Institute of Japan, Dr. Liu Junhong that there are several grotesque, and in the, 1) crude oil prices since 2004, fluctuating significantly. many countries or institution will be the reasons for rising oil prices due to Chinese demand, but actual imports of crude oil in 2005 was negative growth, rising oil prices still .2) November 9, 2007, NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) of the WTI crude oil price $ 97 / barrel oil in January 2007 was about twice as much. from the perspective of supply and demand, such a change can not be .3) in July 2007 the U.S. commercial oil inventories for the 3.1268 million barrels, down slightly from the previous month , but still higher than the average of 3.0880 over the past 5 years barrels high. no significant change in oil supply and demand, but oil prices are very big changes took place.
of the oil market supply and demand of these from the perspective of the phenomenon difficult to explain, Liu Jun Hong that is due to a lot of money into the oil futures market has led to the financial property of the oil market strengthened. He pointed out that the futures market is part of the financial markets. from the commodity market and financial market relations, in December 2004, oil and other resource commodity prices products derived from the total size of derivatives of 1 trillion U.S. dollars, equity derivatives is 4.4 trillion U.S. dollars; December 2006, expanding the scale of commodity derivatives to 6.4 trillion U.S. dollars, while the equity derivatives is 7.5 trillion U.S. dollars, the two who are very close. estimated between 2007 flat. commodity derivatives, the rapid expansion of the scale means that goods are treated as strategic resources, the extent of speculation in financial products has doubled.
crude oil market, the financial performance of the most prominent property is that the New York Mercantile Exchange The scale of oil futures oil 400 times the size of the actual production, which accounts for non-implementation of over 50% of transactions need to .2006 by the end of the availability of hedge fund assets was 1.6 trillion dollars, in 2007 reached nearly 2 trillion U.S. dollars, Among them, into the oil futures market reached 500 billion U.S. dollars. U.S. subprime mortgage crisis led to many large financial institutions came out of the assets from the stock market, invest in the commodity represented by the oil market. developed countries can use the size of pension funds is 13 trillion to 17 trillion dollars, of which 120 billion U.S. dollars into the oil market. In addition there are sovereign wealth funds (SMF).
(2) depreciation of the dollar and international oil prices
Guan Qingyou that the dollar price of oil through the oil - dollar-denominated mechanism to play a role in this mechanism involves not only changes in oil prices, but also to the U.S. hegemony in the world of consolidation. Since the existence of this mechanism, the dollar's price (exchange rate) changes will affect oil prices. dollar and oil prices were negatively correlated (see Figure 2). from the annual average price of view, 2001-2006 the dollar index fell 13% year on behalf of the international crude oil prices rose by 170% .2007, the dollar index is falling, according to the latest Federal Reserve data, the dollar index fell to 95.0584 from the beginning of the month 86.9197 11, falling to 9.36%. ②
the U.S. dollar depreciation, Liu Jun Hong pointed out that if the U.S. dollar in 1973, the actual trade-weighted exchange rate index for the 100, 25 February 1985 to 148.12,1995 year on November 7 76.57,2007 71.11, is lower than in 1995. The current value of the dollar relative to the actual value of the depreciation of the dollar in 1985, 51.9%, compared with 1973 The actual value of the depreciation of 28.9%.
economist Robert Blohm (Bo Ruobai), pointed out that the international money market, foreign exchange market is not a free market, but a monopoly, a market dominated in U.S. dollars. The dollar supply-side only one, that is the United States. Robert Blohm from an economic point of view of Mr dollar, non-dollar currencies and the relationship between oil prices. It can be seen from Figure 3, the 2007 September 14 as the base of 100 words, nearly a time, because the weak dollar, dollar-denominated international crude oil prices higher than the other by the yen, euro, Canadian dollar-denominated international oil prices. Robert Blohm, pointed out the dollar price of oil is negatively correlated, but not entirely ; -1 br> Guan Qingyou a long period from the perspective of fundamental laws of fluctuating oil prices. He said if there is a certain cyclical fluctuations in oil prices is controversial, however, review the History of oil price volatility can be roughly summed up a few basic rules: first, in the international oil companies dominated the market structure, the overall relatively stable oil prices. Second, after 1971, international oil prices showing significant periodicity. Third, the international oil market dominance transferred to the oil-producing and oil consuming countries, the oil price volatility, show that the state Periodic fluctuations in oil prices, the 1945-1981 year period of low prices to high oil prices; 1981-1997 year period of high oil prices to low prices; of the 1997 Asian financial crisis beginning to the high oil prices, low oil prices cycle. The current cycle of high oil prices in international oil prices were. Although we are still unable to determine the vertices of the current round of rising oil prices in what position, but it certainly is, certainly there is also a high oil price periods to low oil prices .
Guan Qingyou with the multiple equilibrium model to explain the fluctuation of oil prices: high oil prices, because oil demand is inelastic, to expand output and may even reduce the income, so will not expand production of oil-exporting countries; the contrary, Since the main market for oil-exporting countries with limited capacity of domestic investment, the oil stored in underground is an country's economic recession and the world economic depression, the demand will be significantly reduced. the face of reduced demand, oil-exporting countries must increase recovery and reduce the investment to make in order to re-attract demand in oil prices. Meanwhile, in order to maintain stable oil income, and must continue to increase production to make up for falling prices caused by revenue. by fluctuations in oil prices since 1965 trajectory analysis, the basic framework of reality can be explained by oil price fluctuations.
Guan Qingyou noted that, under historical experience, from high oil prices into equilibrium to the turning point of low oil prices close to equilibrium with several conditions: First, demand was significantly inhibited, the growth rate decreased; second, output growth began to exceed demand growth rates. low oil prices cycle to cycle of high oil prices, the turning point into the opposite conditions.
Guan Qingyou that the current round of high oil prices to the low oil price cycle, conversion cycle, the inflection point may occur in the following two situations: First, put the world economy as a whole slow. According to IMF 2007 year body of strong economic growth, the prospects still faces many uncertainties. Second, the global response to climate change is already a kind of political thought from the implementation of the national action, low-carbon energy to a large extent, the replacement of fossil fuels. But Since the excessive tension on the rise in oil prices is necessary. He said that the original salt is a livelihood of the largest commodity, as our technology improves salt, salt has become a very popular commodity of the. with the law play a role in alternative energy , if oil can be part of other energy alternatives, oil prices may not be rising trend.
Chen Fengying also believe that oil price fluctuations in the cycle law changed, ups and downs largely determined by the cycle. round super difficult to maintain high oil prices, high oil prices are likely turning point in 2010. Chen Fengying said that high oil prices will eventually curb consumption, changing people's behavior, promote investment and R & D to accelerate the development of alternative energy sources and reduce dependence on oil, eventually change the supply and demand, the birth of billion to 15 trillion barrels, the world about 300 million barrels of oil per year. cycle was no fundamental change in law, of course, similar to the last century 90's era of low oil prices will not be reproduced. based on the 2008 U.S. presidential election, as the ruling party shift flag, ideas and interests of the orientation will change; cycle similar to the end of the depreciation of the dollar, exchange rate movements will affect the future direction of oil prices; new exploration and development, energy conservation and environmental protection measures, the role of alternative energy development will gradually appear, high oil prices are likely turning point appeared in 2010.
upstream investment and the oil supply
1. the world oil situation and cost analysis of upstream investment
into the new century, the rapid development of the global economy, oil demand growth, rising international oil and gas prices, dislocation of oil and gas supply further aggravated the wave of nationalization of the rise of a new round of geopolitical factors influence increased in the new situation, the world's oil and gas exploration and production industry is undergoing profound changes. Economic Research Institute of CNPC, director of strategy Jiang Xuefeng report provided by analysis of the upstream oil and gas investment and the cost of the world situation, showing the oil and gas supply prospects.
(1) exploration of more and more technical challenges facing the field, the cost of a further rise
into the new century, further reduce the scale of the global oil and gas discoveries, oil and gas discoveries since 2006, the world is still not optimistic. According to > upstream exploration areas are facing an increasing number of technical challenges. With the global shift to the deep exploration and development, increasing demands on marine technology; land cost an important exploration areas as reserves, future growth, the surface and reservoir increasingly complex engineering requirements for oil rising; poor quality of crude oil, heavy trend of enhanced oil refining technology faces greater challenges.
a variety of factors promote the further rise in upstream costs. Global Upstream Capital Cost Index (UCCI) 2006 年30% increase since 2007 has increased by 14% .2006, Global 228 companies the average cost of discovery and development increased by 29% to $ 14.42 / barrel of oil equivalent, which found that 77% of costs, to $ 7.26 / barrel of oil equivalent; Since 2003, the impact of rising costs of almost all energy projects (see Table 1). sharp rise in construction costs significantly increased the demand for upstream capital investment. According to IEA (International Energy Agency) data, estimated that by 2010 the world's upstream Investment growth of 170% than in 2000, but after deducting the cost inflation factors, an increase of less than 50%.
(2) the upstream industry competition
reflected in the emergence of new changes: 1) the National Oil Company (NOC) rapid increase in the position. national oil companies and the cooperation between international oil companies from the financial and technical changes to the resource. contract model is more diverse areas of cooperation expansion .2) the rise of a new round of nationalization wave. The new round of nationalization wave and geo-political factors on international oil companies into the rich region to increase the influence and change the competitive landscape of the world oil industry. Many national oil companies strengthened their control over resources, resources in the country to tighten oil policy, oil nation clear tendency, the international oil companies once again been marginalized .3) development of unconventional oil resources, the pace quickened. last two years, as the representative of the Canadian oil sands and unconventional resource development has entered a new phase of growth.
( 3) faster growth in the global exploration and development investment as international oil prices gradually
rising global oil and gas exploration and development investments to maintain rapid growth. From 1999 to 2006, global oil exploration and development investment increased from 675 million to 270.8 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of .2007 times the world oil exploration and development investment continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum, according to Citibank, 234 oil on the global survey, in 2007 global oil exploration and development investment is expected to increase to 299.4 billion U.S. dollars, more than in 2006 growth of 10.6%.
1) investment in exploration and development outside of North America grew rapidly .2007 exploration and development of global investment is expected to increase to 299.4 billion U.S. dollars, of which 98.9 billion U.S. dollars in North America increased from 101.4 billion U.S. dollars, up 2.5%; outside North America increased from $ 171,900,000,000 $ 198,000,000,000, an increase of 15.2%. From 2001 to 2007, Exxon Mobil and other oil companies in six major international investment outside North America increased from 63% to 73% . exploration and development investment hot spots, including West Africa, Caspian and Asia Pacific.
2) medium-scale exploration and development investment is growing rapidly. investment of 5 billion to $ 990,000,000 an increase of between 23%; 1000000000 ~ 19.9 billion U.S. dollars of investment growth rate was 19%; $ 2,000,000,000 and $ 500,000,000 above the exploration and development investment growth following lower.
3) lack of access to exploration potential areas of engineering and technical personnel is intense two investment plans important factor.
4) oil investment budget parameters used in the average oil price of a new high, the average crude oil price of 57 dollars / barrel, more than 2006 high-$ 7 / barrel.
5) offshore investment to maintain growth momentum .2007 year, further expansion of offshore oil and gas investment, is expected to reach 231.6 billion U.S. dollars. At the same time the investment structure will be further change, it is North Sea oil field offshore investment focus from the mature area further west Africa, Asia, the Caspian Sea and other New transfer; Second, investment will continue to gradually from the shallow water area extends to the deep water area; third is the growth in capital spending slowed.
6) increased investment in growth and reserves do not match. high and did not bring new reserves into growth single well costs, but did not bring a single well found reserves increased.
7) the problem of insufficient investment in exploration is still quite prominent. although since 1999, continued growth in investment in exploration, but exploration and investment in only 15% of the proportion of , lower than the late 90s of last century the level of 20%, more investment for development.
8) development of resources in complex and remote areas, increasing the scale of investment projects, project cost overruns and production delays prominent.
(4) the field of international investment in oil exploration trends
1) the overall scale of investment is relatively stable, re-investment rate declined. operating cash flow is relatively large, more of the investment for repurchase, send information and the acquisition of .2) increase in upstream investment with significant growth in oil prices, significant increases in upstream capital intensity (capital intensity = upstream upstream capital expenditure / production of oil equivalent), but the number of exploratory wells and the detection rate fell .2001 m2006, the five largest international oil companies unit reserve replacement costs an average annual growth of 20%, 12% of operating costs In 2003 average annual growth since the growth in exploration investment has not brought the actual increase in workload .3) impact of rising costs and investment in upstream profits and return on investment. International Upstream oil companies profit growth has slowed down, since the upper plate 2002, return on capital increases less than the price of oil. expected the next few years will continue strong growth in capital spending.
2. IOC and the NOC of competing on the international oil and Market
old balance was broken, a new balance has not been established, turn the balance in the old and new, high and volatile oil prices; international oil politics and oil diplomacy has become increasingly important. China National Petroleum Corporation, Policy Research Lv Jianzhong, Deputy Chief Economist describes the relationship between IOC and NOC's competing on the international oil market change and its impact.
(1) NOC and the IOC's role changes
IOC,UGGs, international oil companies, are those completely privately owned, the shares acquired by private entities, multinational oil companies operating. the world oil industry started in the IOC.
OC, the national oil company, is in whole or in part by the state holding company. NOC should be shipped to the national interest and students. Currently, there are nearly 100 global NOC, the majority of developing countries and oil producers. NOC NOC can be divided into producers and consumers NOC; can be divided into commercial NOC, non-commercial and part of the NOC commercial NOC.
According to the U.S. oil companies, there are seven is the NOC; in the world has oil reserves in the 10 largest oil companies, there are 9 is a NOC, they control more than 80% of global oil resources, and the average reserve-production ratio of 78 years. In contrast, five major IOC (Exxon Mobil, BP, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Total) holds reserves of only 3.8%, the average reserve-production ratio of 11 years.
OC sisters %. More importantly, NOC began to become the world oil market ) NOC changes in cooperation with the IOC and the IOC co-
OC changes in the way, has undergone three stages. The first stage is an obvious concession-colonial system. IOC have full control over the production process and full ownership of the oil produced. The second stage since the 70s of last century cooperative management system. With the nationalization of oil and the gradual rise of NOC, resources, the country recovered oil concessions IOC, NOC and the IOC co-formation of new business model, such as production sharing contracts and contract mining costs the tax system. The third stage is a comprehensive, multi-faceted cooperation. NOC cooperation with the IOC, in the past are mainly within the oil industry chain link with upper and lower links, the focus is competing chain The value of the distribution. With the rapid development of downstream business NOC, NOC IOC is no longer just customers, partners or the host country supervisor resource development, and gradually form between the two competing chains of different industries, become a real competitor and all-round cooperative partnership.
IOC always attached importance to the downstream, NOC is being accelerated development of downstream business. the rapid development of oil downstream business, a significant increase in the international oil trade .2000-2006, the world's oil Trade volume increased by 21.2%, of which the share of refined oil trade has grown from less than 22% to 34% or more, and was to continue to increase momentum. in the world's top 25 large oil refining companies, NOC has been accounted for .
Lv Jianzhong that, NOC and the IOC focuses on a win-win cooperation. NOC facing the implementation of integration and international development strategy brought on capital, technology, talent thirst; bear heavy political, social responsibility, difficulty concentrating financial resources in the company's business development. NOC IOC can provide proven oil and gas reserves, low-cost or low-risk investment opportunities, effective reserve resources to succeed or replace, an increase of projects and other attractive investment returns. IOC can be thought NOC to provide risk capital, the most advanced technologies, experience in managing large complex projects and capacity, a wide range of markets.
(3) NOC and the IOC of the competing prospects
IOC actively seek all-round cooperation with the NOC avoid the formation of two completely phase ...
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